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Intensifying Drought Will Likely Result In Deyr Crop Failure And Livestock Losses
Africa

Intensifying Drought Will Likely Result In Deyr Crop Failure And Livestock Losses

The *deyr *rains have largely failed since October, causing alarm for the deterioration of food security conditions in Somalia. Intensifying drought has led to water shortages, a high likelihood of crop failure, and atypically high levels of livestock migration and deaths. Households face both a significant decline in income derived from crop and livestock production and a sharp increase in water and staple food prices, resulting in steep declines in household purchasing power. There is very high concern for a rapid rise in the size of the population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) between November and March, especially in southern and central rural livelihood zones and IDP settlements. A scale-up in humanitarian food assistance beyond currently planned levels is urgently needed to save lives and livelihoods. Rainfall has performed worse than previously assumed. According to CHIRPS remote-sensing data, rainfall during the  1 October - 25 November period ranged from 55 to 70 percent below the 40-year average in southern, central, and parts of northern Somalia. Rainfall totals rank among the driest on the 40-year record in Lower and Middle Juba, Gedo, Mudug, Nugaal, and southern Bari regions. Although the NOAA/CPC's forecast models project light to moderate rains in the next two weeks, these will be inadequate to support recovery in cropping and rangeland conditions. Additionally, many natural water sources have dried up, pushing the price of potable water from manmade sources well above normal. The price of a 200-litre water drum jumped above the five-year average by 45 percent in Gaalkacyo, Mudug Region, 70 percent in Jilib, Middle Juba Region, and 172 percent in Garowe, Nugaal Region, in October. Due to low supply, staple cereal prices continued to trend exceptionally high in October, reaching levels comparable to those recorded during the 2016/2017 and 2010/2011 droughts. In the two main source markets in the south, including Baidoa in Bay Region and Qoryoley in Lower Shabelle Region, the price of a kg of sorghum and maize were 70 percent and 60 percent above the five-year average, respectively. Imported food prices such as rice and wheat flour are also high due to increased demand amid the low maize and sorghum supply, high shipping and fuel costs, global supply factors, and the localised inflation of the Somali Shilling in the northeast. The price of a kg of red rice, for example, ranged from 25-45 percent above the five-year average in various northern and central markets, including Hargeisa, Ceerigaabo, Garowe, Gaalkacyo, and Dhusamareeb

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